As the Houston Rockets have etched out an excellent start to the season, settling into a 8-3 record following their 140-116 over the Portland Trail Blazers in NBA Cup action on Friday night, they have looked like one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the league.
Yet, their turnover numbers, which have increased in the season-long absence of starting point guard Fred VanVleet, could prevent them from being genuine championship contenders, and, with each successive game in which these numbers remain inflated, more concern for their long-term offensive viability arises.
While Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard have done an excellent job adjusting to their new roles in VanVleet's absence, the team, evidently, still has a long way to go before they can prevent the sort of fool-proof offensive attack that will cement them as a contending team.
As good as the Rockets have looked on offense, they need to lower their turnover numbers as soon as possible
Houston, undoubtedly, has shaken off many of the concerns that critics had as they have attempted to account for the loss of VanVleet. Alperen Sengun has stepped up as a dynamic facilitator from the center position, and both Thompson and Sheppard have put their ability to make the right plays on full display.
Yet, when the Rockets have dropped games, it has been because their offensive attack has fallen flat to dynamic opposing defenses, and these are the types of performances they will need to mitigate as the season wears on.
Through their first 11 games, Houston is 19th in the league in turnovers, averaging 16 per game.
Their performance against the Portland Trail Blazers, in which they recorded only six turnovers on the night against one of the scrappiest defensive teams in the league, was a step in the right direction. Yet, they need to prove this was not just a one-off performance.
For reference, last year's champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder, averaged just 11.7 turnovers per game: good for first in the NBA in that category.
Durant, as good as he has been offensively, is a major part of the problem. Through his first 11 games, he is averaging 2.8 turnovers, at times looking to make the home-run pass instead of the simple one and getting burnt for it.
Moreover, as good as Thompson and Sheppard have been, neither has extensive experience at the position at an NBA level, and it is unreasonable to think that they will suddenly become completely reliable ball-handlers by the end of the season.
Against teams with formidable offenses, turnovers can create a sort of chaos that can result in overwhelming runs: the type that can make or break playoff games.
In many ways, the Rockets have exceeded expectations so far this season, redeeming their championship hopes in the eyes of many. Yet, they still have one major facet in which they need to clean up their attack, and their ability to do so will define their season.
