Why Rockets' Jabari Smith Jr. is poised for a breakout season

The Houston Rockets would love to see a breakout season from Jabari Smith Jr. One NBA analyst is picking him to win the league's Most Improved Player award.

It won't be easy. Smith Jr. isn't even the only Rocket who's seen to be in the running for the award. ESPN picked Amen Thompson as the leaguewide favorite to win Most Improved Player.

Each has a case. Thompson feels like he's poised for a star turn. Still, fans shouldn't underestimate Smith Jr:

If anything, he's got more room to improve.

Rockets' Jabari Smith Jr. could take a leap

The Ringer's Michael Pina feels the same way.

"In a winning situation, assuming he starts, which I think he should start, he gets big minutes, and gets open shots or is defended by the opposing team's fourth or borderline weakest defender, any time he's on the court."

- Michael Pina, The Ringer

It's a fair point. The impact of Kevin Durant's gravity cannot be overstated. Teams who were willing to live with Jalen Green's scoring exploits could guard Smith Jr. more rigidly than they'll be able to do now.

That's the driving philosophy behind acquiring Durant in the first place. The Rockets' spacing will tremendously improve. That should make life easier for Alperen Sengun, Thompson, and Smith Jr. as well.

Will it be enough for him to win Most Improved Player?

Rockets' Jabari Smith Jr. will be focused on winning

As far as touches go, little is likely to change. Durant will soak up Green's role. Smith Jr. is likely to continue functioning primarily as a floor spacer. He'll be tasked with taking open shots:

The hope is that he'll get more of them.

That should result in an efficiency spike. Smith Jr.'s basic counting stats won't explode unless he gets more on-ball reps. Barring incredible offseason improvements, that's unlikely. Still, if Smith Jr. can improve his efficiency dramatically enough, it'll result in a nice bump in points per game.

The 2024-25 playoffs offered some hope. Smith Jr. curiously played just 20.4 minutes per game, but he made the most of his time. He averaged 14.1 points and 7.3 rebounds per 75 possessions with a blistering 67.7 True Shooting % (TS%).

That's an unrealistic season-long TS%, but the playoffs suggested that Smith Jr. is capable of being more efficient than he's been in his career. That should be even easier for him with Durant in the fold. If he can bolster his efficiency enough, Smith Jr. could be in the mix for the league's Most Improved Player award.

Unless Amen Thompson beats him to the punch.