Rockets must pass on trade for potentially available star player

The Houston Rockets acquired Kevin Durant this summer, but they've still got enough ammunition to make another blockbuster deal. They shouldn't spend that ammunition on Lauri Markkanen.

This is not a hit piece. Markkanen is a very good player. Some Rockets fans would likely love to see him on the roster.

That's understandable. Markkanen is a star player in his prime. NBA insider Zach Lowe suspects he'll be on the move this season.

Why wouldn't the Rockets be interested?

Markkanen would be too costly for the Rockets

In 2024-25, Markkanen averaged 19.0 points and 5.9 rebounds per game for the Jazz. It was another productive season for a player who's established himself as a star.

There were warts, but they're all defensible. Markkanen's -0.3 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) was subpar, but that likely owes to the Jazz's woeful season. He'd hit 3.6 and 3.8 in his previous two seasons. Similarly, Markkanen's 34.6% three-point shooting was likely an aberration for a 37.1% career shooter.

We shouldn't strictly look at what was ultimately something of a down season. Let's look at a career-best 2022-23 season. Markkanen averaged 25.6 points and 8.6 rebounds while shooting 39.1% from deep.

Yet, it would be wrong to isolate that season as well. Markkanen would not have the same role in Houston that he did in Utah that year. If he joined the Rockets, fans should expect him to split the difference. Markkanen would be likely to regain his efficiency with lower volume. In theory, his counting stats would look like last year's, only with 2022-23 efficiency.

That's a good player, but it wouldn't be worth what Markkanen will inevitably cost.

Rockets shouldn't spend assets on Markkanen

The Rockets should be targeting two types of stars: Aging ones who come at a discount, and in-prime MVP candidates.

That's what you do when you have enough assets to land an in-prime MVP candidate. Handing out assets piecemeal for lesser pieces will hinder your ability to bring in the big fish. In simple terms, the Rockets should avoid Markkanen in case they want Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The Durant deal fell into the former category. The Rockets couldn't pass on him, given what it cost to get him. If you think Danny "Trader" Ainge will let Markkanen go below market value, I've got a skyscraper in Salt Lake City to sell you.

So, this isn't really about Markkanen. It's about the Rockets' market share and how they ought to spend it. Unless they want to make a more significant splash for an MVP candidate, the Rockets should hold their assets:

They've got the ammunition to do whatever they like.