Rockets News: Team expected to extend Fred VanVleet this summer

The Houston Rockets spent a lot of money two summers ago.

Fred VanVleet's contract in particular turned heads. Sure, VanVleet is a good player. He's a crafty veteran who can pilot an offense and shoot threes off the dribble.

But $128 million is a lot of money.

It's an unfathomable figure if you're, for example, an online sports writer. Even by NBA standards, it was a lucrative deal. On a pure production basis, it was an overpay.

The Rockets didn't strictly pay for production. They paid for a reliable veteran with championship experience to steward them back to relevancy. VanVleet has done a tremendous job in that regard.

Now, it's time to extend him at a figure that matches his production.

Rockets expected to extend VanVleet this summer

According to Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus, that's what's likely to happen. He just published a piece ranking the top upcoming free agents around the NBA. He ranked VanVleet sixth.

More relevantly, he stated that there's an expectation around the league that the Rockets will work out an extension with VanVleet this summer. That would mean declining his team option and negotiating a new deal.

It's a sensible decision. Per CleaningTheGlass, the Rockets are +5.3 with VanVleet on the floor in 2024-25. That's second on the team to Alperen Sengun's +5.6 mark.

The Rockets are an organization in an interesting spot. They have short, medium, and long-term goals. One of those long-term goals may be to become untethered to VanVleet, but their short-term goals involve maximizing wins, and they still need him to do that. Luckily, VanVleet is a portable player whose role can scale down as he ages. Extending him is prudent:

What should his new salary look like?

Rockets need team-friendly deal with VanVleet

The last time I broached this subject, I predicted a 4-year, $100 million deal for VanVleet. That's an average annual value of $25 million a year. That still feels reasonable, even if it's a major demotion relative to his current average annual value of $42 million.

Realistically, VanVleet would likely provide surplus value at that figure for two years, and eventually, it would age into an above-market deal. That's fine. VanVleet deserves the team's loyalty for all he's done to shift its organizational culture. Moreover, if that prediction is accurate, he'd be paid fairly in the aggregate.

Still, it would be splendid if VanVleet would agree to something more team-friendly. If he was making even just slightly less than $20 million a year, it would be highly beneficial to the Rockets. It would allow them to extend their young players with impunity, or make a blockbuster trade for a superstar without needing to gut the roster out of cap considerations.

Will VanVleet prioritize winning over money? Could he decide that since he's been (again, on a per-production basis) overpaid for two years now, he's obliged to take a discount? It's hard to say, but either way, it sounds like VanVleet will be a Rocket for the long haul. That's great news:

But the less the Rockets have to pay, the better.