The Houston Rockets have one of the brightest futures in the NBA.
That claim could have been made two years ago, but it would have been controversial. Now, it feels irrefutable. The Rockets are 15-6, have a deep collection of young talent, and have the assets to improve their roster as they see fit.
Heading into 2024-25, the objective was to figure out who the long-term keepers are. It feels like the Rockets are quickly achieving that goal. Amen Thompson and Tari Eason are said to be untouchable. The Rockets won't move Alperen Sengun either. Any star they bring into the fold will have to compliment him - bringing in one star at the cost of another would be self-defeating.
Jabari Smith Jr. is rounding into form after a difficult start to the year. Then, there's Jalen Green. Most statistics indicate that the Rockets don't benefit from his minutes.
He's still a starter, but he isn't part of Houston's best lineup.
Rockets lineup is decimating opponents
Granted, the starting lineup is fine. Per CleaningTheGlass, they're +12.7 in point differential. That puts the lineup in the league's 70th percentile.
What happens when you switch Green for Thompson? Oh, nothing major - the Rockets just slide into the league's 100th percentile with that lineup.
That's not a joke. Across 107 possessions, Fred VanVleet, Thompson, Smith Jr., Sengun and Dillon Brooks have a +36.4 differential.
This is the best lineup in the NBA.
Should the Rockets lean into it?
Rockets should entertain change to starting lineup
Some folks are quick to protest any potential change to the starting group. Perhaps there's a lesson there.
I clamored for the Rockets to move Tari Eason into Jabari Smith Jr.'s spot. Most stats suggest that Eason remains a more impactful player than Smith Jr., but it suddenly looks logical to keep the latter with the starters. Smith Jr. is a better shooter than Eason, and Eason's injection of energy compliments the second unit.
If the Rockets made their best lineup the starting lineup, it could expose itself. Without Green, the group is light on perimeter creation. Granted, Green has been wildly inefficient as a perimeter creator this year. It's still fair to say that he's the most talented scorer on this team. Without a threat to penetrate on the perimeter, teams will guard the Rockets differently.
Isn't it worth finding out? A sample size of 107 possessions means something. This group is particularly special on the defensive end of the floor. They're holding opponents to 91.6 points per 75 possessions, which lands in the 96th percentile.
Defense leads to offense. It could be that the Rockets overwhelm opponents with this lineup in spite of their limited offensive firepower.
Either way, it's currently the best lineup in basketball.