What's Next? 2025 Predictions for the Houston Rockets

Nobody predicted a 17-9 start for the Houston Rockets. 

That's fair. Predictions about the NBA are a fool's errand. The league is wildly unpredictable. Anything can happen in a given season - who are we to predict what's next? 

Well, that's what I'm doing here. Perhaps its masochism. Who knows? Either way, 2025 is around the corner, and there's plenty to speculate about when it comes to the Rockets. 

Here are four predictions for them in 2025. 

1. Alperen Sengun's efficiency bounces back 

Let's start on a positive note. 

Sengun is shooting 58.5% between 0-3 feet in 2024-25. His next worst season across four years had him connecting on 67.1% of those field goals. Why wouldn't he regress to the mean? 

There are several explanations for his efficiency dip. Sengun is having a career-best year defensively and may be struggling to balance his effort levels. Opposing teams have seemingly figured out Houston's game plan as well. They're converging on Sengun more aggressively than they did in 2023-24, and the Rockets don't have the shooters to make them pay. 

The first problem is more easily solved than the second one. If the Rockets don't make any roster moves (more on that later) by the deadline, Sengun will continue to draw ample defensive attention. Still, it feels likely that he'll find his rhythm. Sengun is missing some easy bunnies that he's going to start sticking at some point in 2025. 

2. Reed Sheppard's minutes increase

If you're new to the NBA, 11.8 minutes per game is a low mark for a recent third-overall pick. That's how many minutes Sheppard is averaging in 2024-25. 

It's a delicate situation. Sheppard has struggled in 2024-25, but that's not especially concerning for a rookie. Typically, a team bringing in a third overall pick has more room to let a rookie grow. 

The Rockets aren't your typical lottery team. That pick came via the Nets, and the Rockets are in win-now mode. Sheppard isn't prepared to help them win - yet. 

As the season wears on, he's likely to find a semblance of a rhythm. Once he does, he'll carve out a more meaningful place in the Rockets' rotation. Don't count on Sheppard to start any time soon, but he's likely to be featured more prominently at some point in the new year. 

3. The Rockets don't make a major move 

It's hard to read the tea leaves when it comes to the Rockets and the trade market. They're constantly involved in trade rumors, but Rafael Stone takes every opportunity to confirm that he won't be making a major deal this year. 

It's likely that their presence in those rumors are more speculative than informed. It's not that writers have insider information about the Rockets. They're simply observing that Houston has a lot of assets, and are in a position to consolidate. 

In time, they may - but it's not likely to happen this year. Jalen Green is the young player who's most drastically underperforming, and the poison pill provision in his deal makes him difficult to move this year. The Rockets may re-explore their options in the summer, but if they make a move at this year's deadline, it will likely come around the margins. 

4. The Rockets make the playoffs 

Not exactly a hot take. 

The Rockets are the third seed in the Western Conference. They're supposed to make the playoffs. 

Still, it's to shake the feeling that the Rockets have played above their heads. There is probably a losing streak in their future. As optimistic as fans feel now, rest assured that they'll be brought down a peg in time. 

They may earn homecourt in the first round, and they may not. One thing feels clear: no matter what happens, the Rockets are playoff bound. 

At 17-9, that's a modest prediction.