Should the Houston Rockets trade up in the draft?

The Houston Rockets are set to have three first-round picks in the 2021 NBA draft. Where one of them will land is still at the mercy of the NBA draft lottery and a potential swap with the Oklahoma City Thunder, but the other two are set in stone as the 23rd and 24th picks.

Historically, the 23rd and 24th picks turn into players that spend most of their career as bench players. The Rockets, after a season where they endured a historic amount of roster turnover, would definitely benefit from a more well-rounded bench, but the franchise, after having the worst record in the league, also really needs talent. Should the Rockets trade these picks and go for quality, or keep them and go for quantity?

Houston Rockets: What are the 23rd and 24th picks worth in a trade?

Regardless of their decision, the Rockets should kick the tires on what a package of the 23rd and 24th picks can get them in the draft. Which raises the question, what could those two picks together net the Rockets? Well, that depends on how you look at it.

Dating back to the 1976 NBA draft, players drafted with the 23rd and 24th picks, on average, will be expected to produce a combined 39.3 career win shares. That total is close to the average career win share total of the ninth pick at 41.8 win shares and puts it in the tier of picks six through ten.

However, it is far more valuable to get 39.3 win shares from one player as opposed to two. Also, the 23rd and 24th picks have outperformed the general trend of draft order production.

Career Win Shares picks 21-26

Pick:                  21st      22nd      23rd      24th      25th      26th

Career WS:     17.4      13.4        18.2       21.1      11.5       12.9

As more and more data comes in, it’s likely that the 23rd and 24th picks will level off and settle in around 15 career win shares. If that’s closer to their actual value then the pair won’t come close to sniffing a top-10 pick through trade.

It’s likely that a trade package of the 23rd and 24th pick could land anywhere from the 12th to the 16th pick in the draft. Historically, picks 12 through 16 go on to have roughly the same careers.

Career Win Shares picks 12-16

Pick:                12th      13th      14th      15th      16th 

Career WS:    22.0      29.8       23.0      21.3      19.5

This means that if the Rockets want to move up in the draft they should give the San Antonio Spurs (12th pick), the Indiana Pacers (13th pick), the Golden State Warriors (14th pick), the Washington Wizards (15th pick), and the Boston Celtics (16th pick) a call to gauge their interest. It should be noted that all of these teams control all of their future first-round picks, except the Warriors and Wizards.

Because of this, It’s unlikely that the Spurs, Pacers, or Celtics would move off of their first-round picks for two picks in the 20s. However, that shouldn’t be the case for the Wizards or Warriors who have more use for young cost-controlled role players.

If the Rockets want to move up in the draft then they’re looking at landing a pick in the teens. Here’s if they should pull the trigger and move up close to ten spots in the draft.

Next: Why the Rockets should move up in the draft

Why the Houston Rockets should trade up in the draft

The Rockets need more impact talent and the chances of landing an impact player with the 23rd or 24th picks are incredibly low. Both the Wizards and Warriors could be interested in adding more picks as they both already have multiple star players on their roster and don’t own all of their future first-round picks.

The Wizards owe the Rockets a lottery-protected 2023 first-round pick and the Warriors owe the Grizzlies a lightly protected 2023 first-round pick. However, the Warriors should be the most receptive to flipping the 14th pick for the 23rd and 24th picks between those two teams.

The first reason is that they own the Minnesota Timberwolves 2021 first-round pick. Although it is top-3 protected this year, it becomes unprotected next season, which means the Warriors have a highly valuable first-round pick coming in this draft or next.

The second reason is that their salary cap space situation is dire. The Warriors have $168.1 million in salary commitments for next season and $115.4 million for 2022-23 and that doesn’t include a Stephen Curry extension.

The Warriors are going to need bodies at a low cost if they’re going to build one final contender around their incredibly expensive core of Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson, and the 23rd and 24th picks offer them that opportunity. When you combine that with the fact that they have a top pick coming their way this draft or next and it starts making all the sense in the world.

The Rockets after losing the most games in the league aren’t suddenly going to turn it around because they landed two future bench players. Bench depth is important, but for a rebuilding team, it is the last step in the process, not the first.

The 14th pick is the final pick of the draft lottery and represents a great place for the Rockets’ to pick. First, the chances that the player is at least a productive NBA player are very high, and second, the chances the player is an All-Star, while not high, are not out of the realm of possibility.

Bam Adebayo was selected there in 2017 and so was Clyde Drexler in 1983. While that represents the high end, the 14th pick has produced a career win shares total of 23. Pairing a solid NBA starter with a top-four pick would represent a great way for the Rockets to kick off their rebuild.

Next: Why the Rockets should keep their picks

Why the Houston Rockets should keep the 23rd and 24th picks

The Rockets’ need for impact talent might not be as pressing as their need for talent in general. Last season, there was a good argument that Kelly Olynyk was the Rockets’ best player and he is a career backup and joined the team mid-season.

The Rockets endured an unprecedented amount of injuries and roster upheaval as they set an NBA record for players appearing in games. While the 23rd and 24th picks don’t usually lead to star-caliber players, the Rockets just need NBA quality players if they want to get out of the league basement.

Part of the Rockets’ issues last season were a result of them not having selected a player in the first round since the 2015 draft when they picked Sam Dekker at 18th. The lack of young talent coming in over the past half-decade made them especially vulnerable to injury.

The average age for all the players currently under contract for the Rockets next season is 27.75 years old and that figure excludes Avery Bradley who would be 31. With John Wall and Eric Gordon’s near unmovable contracts, advanced age, and injury histories the franchise needs depth if they don’t want a repeat of last season.

The Rockets currently only have two players, Kenyon Martin Jr and Kevin Porter Jr, under the age of 25 on their roster, which further highlights their need for youth. Keeping the 23rd and 24th picks, along with either a top-4 pick or the 18th pick, will give the Rockets a chance to add some much-needed youth to their roster.

While picks in the 20s hardly ever turn out to be stars, there are always exceptions. This past season, the league’s MVP, Nikola Jokic, was selected with the 41st pick, and Jarrett Allen, a player who some Rockets fans lamented not landing in the James Harden trade, was selected with the 22nd pick in 2017.

Draft picks are NBA lottery picks. Most of them don’t work out but each and every single one of them has a chance to be a superstar. It needs to be mentioned but the chances the Rockets land a superstar with a pick in the teens is almost the same as them landing one with two picks in the 20s.

The Rockets’ desperate need for high-quality and simply average players is too strong to give away a bite at the apple. The Rockets should keep the 23rd and 24th picks and see if they can’t get lucky, because their chances don’t get much better ten spots higher.

Next: The verdict

Should the Houston Rockets trade up in the draft?: The verdict

The arguments for trading up or keeping the 23rd and 24th picks both have merit. The Rockets’ roster is old and lacks talent across the board. However, the answer to what the Rockets should do has everything to do with their other first-round pick.

By virtue of having the worst record in the league, the Rockets’ own first-round pick will land somewhere in the top-five. If the pick lands at five, which has a 47.9-percent chance of happening, then the pick is swapped with the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Rockets receive the 18th pick in the draft.

In the scenario where the Rockets have the 18th, 23rd, and 24th pick, the Rockets absolutely should look to move up in the draft. Now, if the pick lands somewhere in the top-four and the Rockets keep the pick, then using the 23rd or 24th picks to move up becomes a different discussion.

Depending on where the Rockets’ top-four pick lands their needs suddenly change. If they get the number one overall pick then holding onto both picks to help round the roster suddenly becomes a lot more attractive.

If they land the fourth pick and select a good but not highly probable superstar then packaging the 23rd and 24th pick to try and land another impact player makes much more sense. At the end of the day, it’s probably best for the Rockets to try and package their late first-round picks to move up.

As the NBA playoffs are showing, high-end talent wins. The Rockets find themselves light in that department and until it changes they’ll be watching the playoffs from their couches.