Rockets got an absolute steal with Fred VanVleet extension

The Houston Rockets owe a lot to Fred VanVleet for changing their culture. Somehow, they still managed to get him on a discount this summer.

Perhaps that owes to the league's free agency landscape. VanVleet is coming off a down year, and money is tight. If the Rockets weren't facing competition for VanVleet's services, it makes sense that they'd get him on a good deal.

That's not what the Game Theory Podcast's Sam Vecenie was expecting to happen.

Rockets get below-market deal for VanVleet

"I was expecting that deal to be like 3/90 to 3/100...maybe he just didn't have a market....2/50 for Fred VanVleet is an unbelievable deal"

-Sam Vecenie of the Game Theory Podcast

It's true. The Rockets have been paying VanVleet roughly $42.8 million per season. That's an exorbitant number, but VanVleet's value to the team went beyond on-court impact. They've been paying for his leadership. The Rockets were also forced to overpay for veterans when attracting VanVleet to a less-than-attractive situation.

The situation has changed. The Rockets are once again a marquee franchise. They're title contenders, so they need high-value deals on the books. So, the question is this:

Is $25 million a high value deal for VanVleet strictly from a basketball perspective?

Rockets paying VanVleet appropriately

Let's look at who else is in that salary range.

The Heat will pay Terry Rozier about $26 million next year. Miles Bridges will get an even $25 million from the Hornets. The Clippers will pay John Collins handsomely with about $26.5 million.

If you isolate the albatross-ish deals, VanVleet's number looks excellent. That's not to say it's the best deal in the NBA. Trey Murphy III's $25 million looks a little nicer. You'd arguably rather have Mikal Bridges at $24.9 million, or Jaden McDaniels at $24.8 million.

Otherwise, VanVleet's deal is one of the best in that range. Still, it would look a lot better if he's able to bounce back from his 2024-25 season.

Rockets need a bounce back season from VanVleet

VanVleet's 0.9 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) from last year was one of the lowest marks of his career. His 34.5% three-point shooting was subpar as well. He needs to improve both of those marks to make this a high-value contract.

Yet, even if he replicates last year, it's a fine deal. There's little downside here. VanVleet provides intangibles and basketball intelligence that's difficult to quantify. The Rockets got one of the best deals of the summer with this contract:

Arguably, they owe VanVleet more.