Rockets predicted to give Fred VanVleet a contract they simply can't afford

The Houston Rockets owe a lot to Fred VanVleet.

He's been instrumental in this franchise's turnaround. The Rockets have been on an upward trajectory since signing VanVleet. No objective observer should deny that.

That doesn' mean they need to pay him this summer.

Realistically, this stands to be a difficult decision. There are reasons to retain VanVleet's services, and there are reasons to let him walk. It may be that the Rockets have a firm price point.

One major media outlet is predicting a deal they shouldn't be willing to make.

Rockets predicted to offer VanVleet lucrative contract

Specifically, Bleacher Report has the Rockets giving VanVleet a three-year, $97.2 million dollar deal.

That's an average annual value of $34.2 million. Nobody is trying to knock VanVleet here. He's a good player - he may even be worth this money. Here's the issue:

He's not worth that money to the Rockets.

Per CleaningTheGlass, VanVleet is 4th on the Rockets in Efficiency Differential in 2024-25 - behind Alperen Sengun, Steven Adams and Tari Eason.

Sengun and Eason are both potential building blocks. Adams makes $12.6 million per year, and his next deal is likely to be smaller. Why should the Rockets pay triple that amount for VanVleet?

Yes, that's an oversimplification. VanVleet is worth more money than Adams. Still, Box Plus/Minus (BPM) doesn't paint a much more flattering picture. VanVleet's mark of 1.3 is far behind Sengun (4.4), Eason (3.7) and Amen Thompson (3.5). The numbers don't support the idea that VanVleet is worth nearly $40 million a year to the Rockets anymore.

That's not the only reason to avoid paying him...

Rockets need to value cap space

When the Rockets signed VanVleet, they had cap space to burn. They had to meet the floor. Overpaying him on a short-term deal was sensible. It secured a winning player for the Rockets, and it secured a heftier bag than VanVleet likely imagined he'd ever earn.

The buck ought to stop this summer.

The Rockets will also be needing to pay Jabari Smith Jr. soon. They're likely tormented by that decision. Smith Jr. hasn't earned a max rookie extension, but his draft pedigree suggests that there will be a market for him at a high number.

Let's table that - Houston is certainly prepared to pay Thompson. He's flashed tremendous potential. The Rockets will want to lock him up at whatever the cost is.

They may also want to get him some reps at point guard - and the same holds for Reed Sheppard. How will the Rockets accomplish either of those goals with VanVleet earning so much?

That's not to say they should let him walk - although, it's a conversation worth having. More generally, it will be politically difficult to provide their young players with those opportunities while paying VanVleet so handsomely.

The Rockets should play hardball with VanVleet. A deal worth $25 million per season feels reasonable. If he thinks he can get more elsewhere, it would make the most sense for both parties to divorce:

As long as the Rockets thank him on his way.