Rockets' decision on Fred VanVleet just became substantially easier

The Houston Rockets don't know who their most important player is.

Theirs is a complex situation. Some teams are easier to evaluate. Take the Bucks. They want to win now. Their most important player is unambiguously Giannis Antetokounnpo. For the Rockets, it isn't that simple.

They are distinctly done rebuilding. Are they contending, or somewhere between those extremes? Is their most important player whoever is most impactful on their current chances of winning, or whichever of their young core they think can lead them into the future?

By the latter standard, it's difficult to quantify. Some Rockets fans will insist that Alperen Sengun has separated himself from the pack. Others feel that this is Amen Thompson's team, and even Jalen Green has some leftover support. By contrast, if we're asking who's most impactful right now, the answer is simple:

It's Sengun, or it's Fred VanVleet.

The Rockets' veteran steward remains integral to their success. This summer, the Rockets have to decide his future with the team:

Lately, that decision looks a bit simpler.

Rockets can't lose VanVleet this summer

In 2024-25, the Rockets are 5-7 with VanVleet on the sidelines. They've lost to the Wizards, Jazz, and Nets. Simply put, they don't look like contenders when VanVleet isn't available.

CleaningTheGlass tells a similar story. The Rockets are +5.6 when VanVleet is on the floor. It's the second-best mark on the team after Sengun (+6.6).

One fact is clear: VanVleet needs to be in Rockets red to kick off 2025-26. Barring an unexpected trade for a star point guard, this team is not ready to cut the apron strings (not to be confused with strings that would tie them to the second apron of the luxury tax). That clarifies the plan for this summer:

To an extent.

Rockets have options with VanVleet

The Rockets have a team option on VanVleet's contract this summer. It's worth a staggering $45.6 million.

They need him on the roster next season. What about moving forward? Is VanVleet this team's point guard for the foreseeable future, or do they have an exit plan?

If they do, picking up that team option could be the best decision. The Rockets could give Thompson and Reed Sheppard the 2025-26 season to prove that they should be handed the keys moving forward. If they aren't able to prove that point, the Rockets could negotiate a new deal with VanVleet.

For what it's worth, VanVleet is portable. His ability to play off the ball means he'll complement the Rockets' best players for the next few seasons. The Rockets could shift him to a reserve role if one of their young guns emerges as a certified point guard.

That said, who knows what this front office is planning? If the Rockets intend on making a move for a current-day superstar, they may opt to keep VanVleet at the helm for two or three more years. All they currently know is how important he is to them today:

If he's not their most important player, he's close.