Where Rockets would be in the NBA Playoff picture if the season ended today: A favorable matchup

The Houston Rockets are on the right track.

For some fans, this season has been frustrating. To be sure, hanging onto the second seed for as long as the Rockets did, only to slip to fifth was difficult to watch.

Take a step back. Ask yourself if you're being reasonable. The bar for 2024-25 was the playoffs. The Rockets would have to suffer an unthinkable meltdown to miss the postseason. This has been a successful season, even if it has trended downward at times.

Besides, the playoffs are about matchups. If the Rockets were still the second seed, they'd be projected to face a Warriors team that's beaten them 3 out of 4 times this year. Jimmy Butler was only on the roster for one of those contests - the Warriors would be a tough out.

The team that Houston is currently projected to face should be a better matchup for them.

Rockets draw favorable matchup in playoff picture

That would be the Grizzlies.

The Rockets seem to have their number in 2024-25. They've won 3 of their 4 matchups throughout the season.

Granted, regular season records don't always reflect what might happen in the playoffs. The postseason is a unique environment. To draw any conclusions about this matchup, we need basketball reasons why the Rockets might beat the Grizzlies.

Luckily for Rockets fans, there's a big one.

Rockets beat Grizzlies in the possession game

The Rockets are adamant about winning the possession battle. They are built to have the ball more often than opponents. They accomplish this goal by rebounding with ferocity, defending, and limiting their own turnovers.

These are the two best rebounding teams in the NBA. The Grizzlies are one of the few teams the Rockets don't have a healthy rebounding advantage over. Houston is first in the league (48.4) and the Grizzlies are a close second (47.7). So, that's now how the Rockets have been beating Memphis.

It's the turnover game.

The Rockets are 15th in the NBA in turnovers per game (14.1), but that's a bit misleading. They've been coughing up the rock with increased frequency with Fred VanVleet on the sidelines. His assist-to-turnover ratio is arguably his signature skill. Before the All-Star break, Houston's 13.8 turnovers per game ranked 11th in the league.

The Grizzlies don't value the ball to the same extent. Their 16.3 turnovers per game rank 29th in the NBA. Only the woeful Jazz cede possession more often.

A low turnover rate can be indicative of an offense that lacks dynamism. That's true to an extent for the Rockets. Still, in the case of Memphis, the benefit of holding onto the ball outweighs the drawback of taking minimal risks. When one team can't keep the ball, and the other doesn't like to give it up, the latter team has a great chance of winning.

Should Rockets fans be pencilling in a second-round appearance?

Rockets need to finish season strong

Easy there. There's plenty of regular season left.

Houston holds a three-game lead over the Warriors for that fifth seed. They're 3.5 games ahead of the seventh-seeded Timberwolves. Meanwhile, they're only a game behind Memphis, and just two games behind the third-seeded Nuggets.

Memphis' place in the standings is subject to change as well. This matchup is far from a foregone conclusion, and even if it does come to fruition, the Rockets can't take anything for granted. They'll have to be sharp to beat the Grizzlies:

If they do, nobody will deny that it's been a successful season.