Houston Rockets: Top-8 Rockets ranked by trade value

With each passing day, the NBA Draft is one step closer for the Houston Rockets. After enduring one of the franchise’s worst seasons the Rockets enter the offseason for the first time in ages with their minds fully set on a rebuild.

The Rockets will have three first-round picks in the 2021 NBA draft with the 23rd and 24th picks heading their way due to their trades with the Portland Trail Blazers and the Milwaukee Bucks. The Rockets’ own first-round pick will see them select second overall and give them another young player to build around.

Depending on who the Rockets select, their future plans will be much clearer as their offseason needs will change drastically depending on who they select. And once the NBA draft and moratorium period end on August 6th the Rockets will be able to enter the free-agent and trade markets to round out their roster to continue their rebuild.

Who is a part of the Houston Rockets’ future?

The Rockets, after the season they had, have no untouchable players. As of right now, the Rockets have eight players under contract for next season with that number set to grow after the draft and free agency.

Every player, except the top-20 or so players in the NBA, is available through trade, and the Rockets, if the right offer is made, likely won’t hesitate to pull the trigger on a deal. Rebuilding teams need to be thinking about the future and there are maybe four players on this current roster that have a shot at being a part of it.

With the amount of roster turnover in the modern NBA, there remains a real chance that no player from the 2020-21 Rockets is on the franchise’s next playoff team. These are the Houston Rockets ranked by their trade value and how much the franchise could realistically get in return for them based upon their production, contract, and age.

Next: Trade value #8

Houston Rocket trade value #8: John Wall

John Wall, quite literally, might have the least amount of trade value in the entire NBA. He’s set to be the second-highest-paid player in the league next year and if he exercises his player option for the 2022-23 season he will be the highest-paid player as of now.

With Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Luca Doncic and Chris Paul set to hit free agency over the next two offseasons it’s unlikely that Wall will remain the highest-paid player for 2022-23 but he has a good chance to remain in the top-five. When a player is making that much money, for them to have any trade value they have to be one of the 20 best players in the league.

Unfortunately, Wall is nowhere near the top-20 at this stage in his career and it seems unlikely that he will ever approach that territory again. He will be 31 next season and hasn’t played in at least 70 games since the 2016-17 season.

Last season, in 40 games played, Wall produced 0.6 value over a replacement player (VORP), which would place him at 1.2 VORP over a full 82 game season. A full season mark of 1.2 VORP usually sees a player finish around 90th overall in the statistic.

Getting the 90th best player for the price of the second-best player is not a good way to boost your trade value. The reality is, even if Wall was still a good player his contract still makes him near impossible to fit into a team’s salary cap.

The few teams that have enough salary-cap space are almost all rebuilding with exception of the New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs. The Knicks remain the best landing spot, and it has been reported there is some level of interest, but for the Rockets to trade Wall they would likely have to give up something of value to get someone to take him.

The Rockets should let Wall play out his deal and hope some desperate team makes the mistake of bringing Wall in. At this point, trading Wall without sacrificing any draft capital would be a win for the Rockets. Hopefully, he experiences a rebound in 2021-22 but barring that he’s a sunk cost at this point.

Next: Trade value #7

Houston Rocket trade value #7: Eric Gordon

Eric Gordon experienced a bit of a resurgence in 2020-21 but due to a groin injury, he only featured in 27 games. He’ll turn 33 next season and still has two more years left on his deal before a non-guaranteed third year.

At $18.2 million this upcoming season and $19.5 million in 2022-23, the appetite for Gordon’s services will be muted as most contenders have maxed out their salary cap space or are hoarding it for a bonafide superstar. Gordon’s play has been in decline the past few seasons and his 3-point shot, once his calling card, has been absent the past two seasons.

The only reason Gordon ranks higher than Wall is that there are more teams capable of taking on his salary and if he regains his 3-point shooting stroke then he could be valuable depth at the guard position. Gordon doesn’t need to be the center of a team’s offense which makes him a fit for more teams but once again, there are plenty of cheaper, younger, and better options out there.

Last season Gordon produced 0.3 VORP, which put him at a 0.9 VORP over the course of 82 games. Production like that places a player around the 100th best player in the league and Gordon is set to be 58th highest-paid player next season.

The Rockets should be happy to take a second-round pick for Gordon if someone offers it. In NBA terms, that’s essentially a giveaway as second-round picks hardly ever make a dent in the league, although Nikola Jokic would argue with that train of thought.

If no one comes for Gordon then the Rockets will likely wait out his deal and cut him in advance of the 2023-24 season when his salary is not guaranteed. There was a time when Gordon was crucial to the Rockets’ title aspirations, but, unfortunately, those days are long gone.

Next: Trade value #6

Houston Rocket trade value #6: D.J. Augustin

The Rockets did a shrewd bit of business when they acquired D.J. Augustin this season as part of the P.J. Tucker trade. While Tucker’s defense has been lauded in these playoffs against Kevin Durant he spent most of the season looking like a shell of the player he once was.

The Rockets, as part of the P.J. Tucker deal, swapped their 2021 second-round pick for the Bucks first-round pick and swapped their 2022 Bucks first-round pick for the Bucks’ 2023 first-round pick. For the Rockets to improve their asset situation they had to take on Augustin’s contract, which was deemed a sunk cost by the title contenders.

Last season, Augustin produced 0 VORP but it should be noted that a replacement player, someone found on a 10-day contract or the G-League, is a -2 VORP player. Augustin doesn’t raise your team’s ceiling in any way but he also won’t completely tank your chances.

D.J. Augustin, at this stage in his career, has no real business being on a title contender but he isn’t a completely useless player either. Any playoff hopeful in need of a backup point guard could do a lot worse than the 12 year NBA veteran.

Augustin is set to make $7 million next season and has a non-guaranteed $7.3 million coming to him in 2022-23. Augustin, for all intents and purposes, is on a one-year deal worth a little more $7 million, which means his contract isn’t prohibitive to acquire.

Chances are the Rockets will receive calls for Augustin either this offseason or ahead of next season’s trade deadline. The cost of landing him won’t be more than a second-round pick unless a team has an injury crisis or Augustin turns back the clock.

At the end of the day, Augustin is just an extension of the P.J. Tucker trade. If he is traded for a second-round pick then the Rockets will have turned Tucker into an extra first and second-round pick, which isn’t a bad haul considering Tucker was posting career-worst numbers this past season.

Next: Trade value #5

Houston Rocket trade value #5: Danuel House

Danuel House, at one point, was a Rockets’ success story. He went from being on the periphery of the NBA to carving out an important role on the 2019-20 Rockets. However, ever since his infamous mishap that led to his expulsion from the NBA playoff bubble his career has been trending downwards.

House went from being a solid NBA rotation piece to producing -0.3 VORP in only 36 games played last season. In the final year of his deal for $3.8 million House needs to bounce back in a big way to save his NBA career.

What makes House a more valuable trade target over the three guards before him is simple. $3.8 million for one year is a financial commitment that just about every team can take on and at only 29 years old next season there remains some serious upside with House.

In 2018-19 and 2019-20 House played in 102 games and produced 1 VORP. While those numbers aren’t All-Star level, it means he was close to a top-100 player at the price of what the 250th highest-paid player made.

The Rockets know how valuable House could be and likely won’t look to sell low on him in the offseason. If he bounces back then he could land a late first-round pick or multiple second-round picks for a team that needs to round out its playoff rotation.

Next: Trade value #4

Houston Rocket trade value #4: Kenyon Martin Jr

The biggest thing going for Kenyon Martin Jr is that he is very young and costs a pittance. Martin won’t turn 21 until January of next year, will make under $2 million each of the next three seasons and none of those seasons are guaranteed.

If Martin were to suddenly turn into a pumpkin the team could cut him and not have to pay him a thing. Outside of Martin being on an incredibly team-friendly deal, he flashed enough in his rookie season to prove that he is an NBA-ready contributor.

As Martin’s game grows he has a chance to be a top-100 player before the end of this contract which makes him an incredibly valuable player. Because of this, the Rockets wouldn’t even entertain the idea of trading him.

His future value is potentially too high to move on from him and his current production isn’t enough for a team to surrender a large package for his services. At the end of the day, Martin is a great building block for the Rockets to have and they should be in no rush to move him.

What he’d fetch on the trade market is unknown but if he were made a free agent today he’d certainly get a better deal than the one he’s on now. Martin could very easily move up this list next season, hopefully, he makes good on the promise he showed in his rookie season.

Next: Trade value #3

Houston Rocket trade value #3: Kevin Porter Jr.

Kevin Porter Jr’s ranking on this list was incredibly difficult to pigeonhole. He is young, on a small contract, and clearly talented but he doesn’t have a positive statistical track record to fall back onto.

Porter has posted decent box-score statistics but he hasn’t shown much on the defensive end and his offensive efficiency is concerningly low. However, his potential to be an offensive hub is tantalizing enough that he could headline a trade to land a proven NBA contributor.

Now, that doesn’t mean the Trail Blazers are going to swap him and Damian Lillard but it means that teams value his potential enough to have him be at the center of trade talks. Porter is in a make-or-break season as he enters his third year in the NBA.

He needs to prove that he can be the man on offense and turn his flashes of potential into a consistent force on the offensive side of the ball. In his first season in Houston, there were positive developments but it’s not certain whether he is more D’Angelo Russell (big stats, bad player) or James Harden (big stats, great player).

The Rockets used a second-round pick to land Porter and right now he’d probably land a mid to late first-round pick. That on its own makes the trade a win, but if Porter puts it all together he could become an untouchable prospect.

Next: Trade value #2

Houston Rocket trade value #2: Jae’Sean Tate

It took Jae’Sean Tate a long time to reach the NBA but the wait appears to have been well worth it. If the Rockets had finished the season with a better record Tate would have received some deserved Rookie of the Year buzz.

Tate, as a rookie, proved that he can be an elite multi-positional defender and at times flashed impressive playmaking chops when given an expanded role. Already 25-years-old, Tate isn’t some can’t-miss prospect but he looks to be a reliable role player for another half-decade.

What really bolsters Tate’s value is his contract. Signed out of Australia’s National Basketball League, Tate is on a deal that will pay him under $2 million annually for the next two seasons and none of the money is guaranteed. Essentially, there is zero downside to acquiring Tate.

To give some perspective to Tate’s value, he is paid like a second-round pick and produces like a player drafted at the tail end of the lottery. His upside likely isn’t at an All-Star level due to his age, but a solid rotation piece for the price of a second-round pick has been and will always be incredibly attractive to NBA front offices.

For the right team, Tate is well worth a first-round pick. Any team up against the salary cap and in need of a versatile wing defender, which sounds like every contender, could use a player like Tate. If his 3-point stroke improves to league average, he could command even more.

The Rockets shouldn’t look to move Tate but if someone comes knocking with multiple first-round picks that might be too much to pass up. Tate will be a free agent in the summer of 2024 and should rightfully cash in.

Next: Trade value #1

Houston Rocket trade value #1: Christian Wood

It should come as no surprise that Christian Wood is number one on this list. His combination of age (25), production (All-Star level), and contract (bench player) make him one of the most valuable trade chips in the entire NBA.

Due to the NBA’s max contract structure, the most valuable players are the top 10 or 15 players in the league. Because player salaries are artificially capped the top players in the league are by default underpaid.

After the league’s top 15 or so players the next most valuable players are players like Luka Doncic and Zion Williamson, superstars still on their rookie deals, and there are only ever a few of these players at any given time. Christian Wood resides in the next tier.

He is an All-Star caliber talent that is being paid like a solid rotation option. When a team gives up seven draft picks to get James Harden, as the Nets did, they aren’t just doing it to land a great player, they’re doing it because a player of Harden’s quality is always underpaid as well.

Wood produced 1.2 VORP over 41 games, which places him in the top-35 players if he maintained that production over 82 games. However, he was the 85th highest-paid player, showing just how massive the gap between his pay and play is.

Wood has two more years on his deal for $13.6 and $14.3 million. On the open market, he’d easily get over $20 million a season and likely over $30 million. Adding Christian Wood to your roster is essentially like adding $10 to $20 million to your team’s salary cap.

The return for a Christian Wood, if he were to be moved this offseason, would be immense. He won’t land a Harden-level return of four picks and three pick swaps, but he would definitely command at least two first-round picks and two pick swaps.

The Rockets shouldn’t feel rushed to move Wood, he has two more years left on his deal and it behooves them to see if he can continue to improve. However, if they get the sense that Wood has tapped out his potential already, then moving him now for a haul and avoiding losing him for nothing or extending to him a massive deal is something they need to consider.