The Rockets have a huge decision to make about Fred VanVleet
The Houston Rockets have been revitalized.
We saw some dark years. The practice of "tanking" isn't easy for any fanbase to stomach. Losing games is difficult. Losing games on purpose feels sacrilegious.
Yet, the process is bearing fruit. The Rockets wouldn't have a stockpile of young talent if they hadn't tanked. We're not questioning the efficacy of their decisions. We are, however, thankful that the process is over.
Fred VanVleet has been a large part of the revitalization process. His leadership has not gone unnoticed in Houston.
How much longer will he be part of the team?
The Rockets have a myriad of options
It feels like VanVleet just got here. Yet, we don't know how long he'll stay. If you were reading the tea leaves (i.e., if you're particularly neurotic about the Rockets), you started thinking about this as soon as his deal was signed.
The 2024-25 season is the last guaranteed year on VanVleet's deal. Next summer, the Rockets will have a team option.
What should they do with it?
The simplest answer would be to exercise it. That would give the Rockets another year of VanVleet's services. Depending on the team's direction after 2025-26, they could negotiate a new amount for him during the following summer.
In this case, even the simplest solution isn't necessarily simple. VanVleet is on the hook for $42.8 million a season. That's a hefty sum, and the Rockets may be feeling a financial crunch soon.
Much has been made of Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun's impending extensions. For argument's sake, let's first assume that Houston retains just one of them. Suddenly, they'll be spending something in the vicinity of $100 million between three players in VanVleet, Sengun or Green, and Brooks.
Now, imagine they extend both Sengun and Green. The Rockets will almost assuredly be over the second apron. Most teams with three max(ish) contracts on their salary sheet would line the rest of their books with veteran minimums. The Rockets have a lot of players on rookie deals. That's typically a cost cutter, but in this context, they'd suddenly require (even) cheaper deals.
So, the alternative would be to decline VanVleet's option and renegotiate something more affordable. That's perfect in theory. In practice, the Rockets would be at the mercy of the market. They could have a price point in mind, but if another team was willing to offer a higher price, VanVleet could bolt.
Is trading him the right call?
The Rockets should shop VanVleet this year
We're open to the possibility.
Look - there's no urgency to trade VanVleet. If he walks, he walks. The Rockets didn't give up assets to get him, so if they don't get assets for him, it's a case of six of one and a half dozen of another.
Still, if you'll forgive some rudimentary logic, getting something is always better than not getting anything. The Rockets need to consider moving VanVleet this year.
Who knows? Rafael Stone could decide to pivot into win-now mode aggressively. If the Rockets make a blockbuster deal for a superstar, renegotiating VanVleet's deal could be a more attractive option. Otherwise, they should be grooming Reed Sheppard to replace him.
None of this should be perceived as a knock on VanVleet. He's been outstanding on and off the floor for Houston. Still, his usefulness to the squad may have expired:
He already revitalized the Rockets.